Fifteen Days of Chuck by Robert Seidman

[Pearl@32]

I like this guy's blogs. Day Two is hilarious (but a little sad with all the speculation), but I need to start at Day One.

Fifteen Days of Chuck: Day One
Posted on 04 May 2009 by Robert Seidman
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/05/04/fifteen-days-of-chuck-day-one/17985

Chuck vs. The Truth

Day 1 Mood:  positive and upbeat for renewal!

Oh come on. Who didn't see this coming?!  Fifteen more days of Chuck love, Chuck comments, the bashing of Chuck fans, and the bashing of the Chuck fan bashers.

I'm just going to soak it all in - bask in it even.  And then, I'm probably going to take a month off and watch every episode ever made of Law & Order, Law & Order: SVU and Law & Order: Criminal Intent.  I've been watching those shows a bit recently in homage to my colleague Bill who marks those among his favorite shows.  I understand why he likes those shows so much.  There's rarely any wasted plot at all.

Anyway, back to Chuck.  From now until May 19th when NBC allegedly will be announcing more pickups and the schedule, there will be a Chuck o' the Day post.  So here's today's...

I'm still upbeat for the renewals of Law & Order, Medium and Chuck.  All the tea leaves today still point towards renewal of those three shows despite them not being among NBC's announcements today.  But tomorrow is another day.  Do I buy into the Watch With Kristin theory put forth by our friend Jennifer Godwin?

   

One theory on the delayed announcements is that NBC wants to see what the other networks do with their pilots and programming before making any final picks. And one theory derivative of that theory is that there's some defensive strategy involved. Cancel Fox-studios-produced My Name Is Earl now and you might see it picked up by Fox-network president Kevin Reilly on May 18. Drop Chuck today and maybe you get a courtesy call from CW boss Dawn Ostroff next week informing you that she's taking it to the See-Dub to hang out with Gossip Girl...

The primary reason I'm not quick to jump to conspiracy theorist here is NBC could've scheduled their upfront for May 20th and other than taking a little bit of flack over "I guess that "infront" thing didn't work out", nobody would've thought twice about it.

NBC can and probably should use any advantage it has.  It seems a bit icky, but it's an icky business. Still, I do not believe CW would pick up Chuck under any circumstances.  I could be wrong, but had NBC announced Chuck today, I just don't see much of a case for Dawn picking it up.  Whether CW should/shouldn't is a different matter. I just think under Dawn's management they wouldn't.   But even if that's wrong, if NBC doesn't renew it on May 19th, Dawn still has a couple of days to slide it into the CW schedule before CW's upfront on May 21 if she has a mind to.

As for FOX picking up My Name is Earl?  There, it just seems like If it makes sense for FOX, they will pick it up if NBC doesn't and figure it out regardless of what NBC does and when they announce it.

I'd offer another theory on the delayed announcements: NBC wishes it was having its upfront in a couple of weeks like everyone else.  They weren't really ready and Nora O'Brien's sad passing didn't help matters any.  But they had announced their infront upfront and scheduled meetings etc., so they felt like they had to stay with the plan even though it isn't actually ready yet.  It will be interesting to see if NBC goes back to a normal upfront schedule next year.

For now, the way I look at it is that when it comes to Chuck (and a few other shows) we simply don't know yet, and I believe that is because NBC doesn't know yet.  I think once NBC picked up the Warner Brothers produced Southland, Warner Brothers wasn't as likely to pressure NBC into making its Chuck decision now.

I do agree with this from TV Week though:

   

The lack of a decision on borderline shows "doesn't mean that they won't be picked up," Mr. Graboff said. "We just haven't made those decisions, and we don't feel any pressure to do so."

NBC, however, may be looking to maximize its leverage with the studios behind the bubble shows. Networks are looking to control license fee costs wherever possible, and by announcing its lineup of newcomers now, NBC is trying to signal that it might just be able to live without shows on the bubble if the studios behind those shows get too greedy.

Again, I'm upbeat for Chuck.  Upbeat for a mid-season return of Medium and upbeat that somehow, some way Law & Order will see its twentieth season.

What about Life and Knight Rider?  Not upbeat at all.  But I mourned Life appropriately already, by thoroughly enjoying the season (and no doubt series) finale.  Update: during our site outage many sites reported on Ben Silverman's comment that Life was definitely not coming back. While not a surprise, I think some were still holding out hope of a miracle. That hope has now been dashed.

[Pearl@32]

Fifteen Days of Chuck: Day Two
Posted on 05 May 2009 by Robert Seidman
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/05/05/fifteen-days-of-chuck-day-two/18075

Current mood:  tired, stupid, but still upbeat about Chuck's renewal prospects!

Chuck fans vs. our web server

Looks like I picked the wrong day to be stupid about computers.  Within about a half hour of posting the first day of the Fifteen Days of Chuck, our website crashed and it took all the king's horses and all the king's men about six hours to put it back together again.

The problem?  It's not Chuck fans.  It's the path Bill and I have gone down and it's complicated.  While Bill and I aren't geeks who work in the Buy More (or the Best Buy) we are geeks who don't work at the Buy More.   But when it comes to computers, as geeky as we are, we wind up seeming more like Jeffster (Jeff and Lester) than Chuck when it comes to aptitude.

I'm not necessarily saying that I don't know my way around a MySQL database, just that when it comes to that sort of thing it's not something I'm really all that interested in being really knowledgeable about.   Sometimes when you combine lack of interest, and lack of knowledge with responsibility, the results aren't very good.  But,  necessity is the mother of invention, so I got out MySQL for dummies and went to work.  Actually, I don't have that book (thinking about ordering it, though) but Google is an excellent resource if you need to fix a problem.   Hopefully those fixes will get us through the upfronts without further outages.

Josh Schwartz' special hell

You don't need to watch Entourage or read the trade press to know there are plenty of douchebags in Hollywood, but by all accounts, Chuck executive producer and co-creator Josh Schwartz doesn't seem to be one of them.  In fact, he seems like one of the "good guys".   But sometimes it also seems like he must've cut some kind of devilish bargain.

"Good news, Josh!  Two of your series are being picked up.  Gossip Girl and Chuck. Yay!  But, here's the thing, both shows are going to air at the same thyme against each other."

Nobody ever said life was fair, but that seems a bit harsh.  I don't think the CW has a particular problem with Chuck airing when it does and the good news for Gossip Girl is it is at least good counter programming when Monday Night Football is airing.  That didn't prove to be the case for Chuck though.  Then, over the winter when House moved to Mondays at 8pm on FOX, it wound up hurting both Chuck and Gossip Girl.

Chuck on Fridays?

Given the little bit of hinting NBC has done about its scheduling plans, there is now speculation that Chuck could air on Fridays.  I do not see that happening.  I'd be fine if it did, although if it went down like that, I think we'd be looking at 13, and only 13 more episodes of Chuck.

That might be the case regardless of where it aired, but it seems all but certain if it airs on Friday.  I can't really come up with a case where NBC would renew the show if it planned to put it on Fridays, but it's NBC, so I suppose anything is possible.  I'd rather have 13 more episodes than none at all, so while I'd scratch my head in wonder if NBC announced plans to air Chuck on Fridays, I'd take it.

[Saxon]

At this point, I don't care when it airs, just that we get more. I was so very ticked that most of my faves shows seemed to be 'opposite each other'...with some days of NOTHING. I don't get that. Why would anyone want to pit any of their shows against something similar (in terms of demographics). I mean, put a 'teen show' opposite a crime show. Don't put "The Miley Cyrus show" opposite "High School Musical-Backstage'. You want to be sure you don't have competition. You want 'like shows' on your own net to flow together. Don't do a 'kids' show, then a 'grandma' show, followed by a 'dad' show. Cuz, sure as shootin' people will flip channels and go with what's easiest. Just like me sittin' through panels I don't care about at Comic Con...it's easier to sit tight to be sure I see what I want to see. It's too easy to get distracted and forget to change channels, or for me, to leave the computer and get back tot he TV. (missed the first couple minutes of "Castle" a couple times cuz of that...why even have that dancing show as a lead in?).

*sigh*

Fans should control programming.

[TinkTanker]

Put that POS Heroes on Fridays, Chuck on Mondays. Problem solved.

[Pearl@32]

Fifteen Days of Chuck: Day Three
Posted on 06 May 2009 by Robert Seidman
http://tvbythenumbers.com/category/15-days-of-chuck

Mood:  still optimistic about renewal, but I'm cranky over lack of Nielsen data.

Has anyone noticed since NBC announced some pickups without picking up Chuck and instead deferring that decision by as much as fifteen days there hasn't been any Nielsen data?  Coincidence?

If you're one of those people who don't believe in coincidences probably not.  I am not one of those people though.  I do believe in coincidence.  Still, just like there has been no Chuck renewal yet, there is no Sunday, Monday or Tuesday ratings data yet.  And since Sunday is still waiting, there's no weekly data yet either.

I am guessing the river of Nielsen data begins to flow again before NBC announces Chuck's fate, and though I'd be fine with NBC making an announcement sooner rather than later, I really am more interested in the ratings data.  When you have a web site that primarily focuses on ratings data, and there is no ratings data, it's not much fun.

Judging from some of the comments, there are those who seem to believe it actually is a Chuck conspiracy, only some think that we are deliberately hoarding the Nielsen data so we can focus exclusively on Chuck.  It isn't so.  I really do want to know (and share) how Castle did on Monday, Fringe on Tuesday, etc.   And many Chuck fans are just dying to know how Deal or No Deal did Monday night at 8pm.

I mostly have stopped reading the comments in these posts instead opting to catch up on Numb3rs, NCIS, and Law & Order: Criminal Intent.   After the first ten "I hate Chuck, your site is nothing but Chuck, where are the ratings!!?!?" comments, it gets a little bit childish.

I don't have a problem with childish so much, I'd just rather save my childish time for parents who use their children to create videos that will embarrass the hell out of them ten years down the road...

Chuck's Youngest Fan Talks about the Finale

I am as optimistic as I was yesterday, and the day before about Chuck's renewal prospects.  Hopefully the Nielsen river of data will begin flowing again soon.  Stay tuned...

(I thought the video was cute)

[AdmiralDigby]

[Pearl@32]

sweet!

[Saxon]

Kids are soooooooooooooooooo cute!!

I love the 'and then...and then....'

too adorkable.

[Pearl@32]

Fifteen Days of Chuck: Day Four
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/05/07/fifteen-days-of-chuck-day-four/18247
Posted on 07 May 2009 by Robert Seidman



Mood: still tired and cranky, but as upbeat as ever about Chuck's renewal prospects.

For a few hearty souls, the days are just zipping by and day fifteen will be here in the blink of an eye.  But for a large contingent, the "fifteen days of Chuck" can't end soon enough.

As expected, the Nielsen logjam broke before any formal announcement about Chuck was made.  We have the overnight reports through Monday and Nielsen plans to be all caught up by Friday afternoon.   We finally have the weekly information up, too.  Bill has revised his chances of Chuck's renewal from 75% last week to 95% this week.   At the time Bill predicted 75% I had predicted 86%, and just to be slightly more optimistic than Bill, I'll revise my original number to 97%.

What's the difference between 97% and 100%?  It's larger than it might appear.  If you could get 100% assurances of winning a $500 million dollar lottery if you bought $500,000 worth of tickets, you'd mortgage your house and if there wasn't enough money you'd sell everything you own on EBay.    You wouldn't think twice about it because you were guaranteed to win the $500 million!  But if you switch it up, even a little, say to 97%, things start to look a bit different.  If you had even a 3% chance of losing everything you owned, including your house, you might not want to risk it.

Be optimistic on Chuck's return, but think twice before being so optimistic you'd bet your house on it.

In other news, fan boys are w00ting it up over a very poor showing for Deal or No Deal in the Monday 8pm timeslot, where it pulled in a 1.2 rating for adults 18-49, only half of what what Chuck was doing recently.  I don't read that as necessarily a good sign for Chuck.  It is a bad sign for NBC, who apparently still though Deal or No Deal could bring it some May Sweeps joy, either that or they figured, "what the hell, it hardly costs anything to put on the air, and it's guaranteed to do better than Kings!"

Again, I'm not sure that it means anything at all for Chuck's prospects, but it certainly isn't a bad sign.  And if nothing else, if Deal or No Deal had reeled in a 3.0 adults 18-49 rating the fans would've completely freaked and it could've gotten ugly.  I know there are more than a few Chuck haters who wished it would've gone down like that.  Unless NBC pulls it from the schedule, the haters will get another chance to wish upon a star next week when Deal or No Deal is scheduled to air on Monday at 8pm again.

[AdmiralDigby]

Deal or No Deal ?

Let's hope that goes away and soon .